BaseballUPCOMING

Live· updated 47s ago

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

MLB · May 15, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Baltimore Orioles

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.89	53.0%	$0.53	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.87	53.5%	$0.54	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.53

Odds

1.89

Implied

53.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.54

Odds

1.87

Implied

53.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Baltimore Orioles

Best: 53.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

53.5%

53.0%

Washington Nationals

Best: 48.0% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

46.5%

48.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Baltimore Orioles

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.530

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.635 avg

+14.78% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.553

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.716

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.688 avg

+18.79% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.579

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Baltimore Orioles (kalshi, $533) — slippage 2.7% — eats into edge

Washington Nationals (polymarket, $467) — slippage 5.2% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Baltimore Oriolesthin	kalshi	1.89	$533	$1005
Washington Nationalsthin	polymarket	2.15	$467	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Baltimore Orioles

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 53.5% vs kalshi at 53.0%

Expected Value

+0.94%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.89) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.1%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $24.8K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 9d 5h

Source: https://www.mlb.com/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $35
24h Volume: $35
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $35

Resolves: in 5d 5h

Settlement Timeline

kalshiin 5d 5h · May 18, 2026, 10:45 PM
polymarketin 9d 5h · May 22, 2026, 10:45 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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