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ITF Harmon: Kosuke Ogura vs Evan Zhu

Other · June 2, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Kosuke Ogura

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	2.86	35.0%	$0.35	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	2.74	36.5%	$0.37	+1.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.35

Odds

2.86

Implied

35.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.37

Odds

2.74

Implied

36.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Kosuke Ogura

Best: 36.5% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

36.5%

35.0%

Evan Zhu

Best: 65.0% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

64.5%

65.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Kosuke Ogura

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.350

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.652 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.652

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.857 avg

-0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.857

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Kosuke Ogura (polymarket, $352) — not enough depth at $352

Evan Zhu (kalshi, $648) — slippage 6.6% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Kosuke Ogurathin	polymarket	2.86	$352	$1005
Evan Zhuthin	kalshi	1.55	$648	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Kosuke Ogura

Spread

1.5pp

kalshi at 36.5% vs polymarket at 35.0%

Expected Value

+4.29%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (2.86) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 11h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $6
24h Volume: $6
Liquidity: $1.2K
Open Interest: $6

Resolves: in 7d 11h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 11h · Jun 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 11h · Jun 17, 2026, 12:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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