TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 30s ago

ITF Litija: Niklas Schell vs Luca Castagnola

Other · May 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Niklas Schell

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	3.64	27.5%	$0.28	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.20	45.5%	$0.46	+18.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.28

Odds

3.64

Implied

27.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.46

Odds

2.20

Implied

45.5%

Edge

+18.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Niklas Schell

Best: 45.5% on polymarket

▲+18.0%

Prediction market is 18.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

45.5%

27.5%

Luca Castagnola

Best: 73.0% on kalshi

▲+18.5%

Prediction market is 18.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

54.5%

73.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Niklas Schell

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.275

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.650 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.650

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.889 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.889

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+21.95%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Niklas Schell (kalshi, $335) — slippage 39.1% > 10% cap

Luca Castagnola (polymarket, $665) — slippage 3.1% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Niklas Schellthin	kalshi	3.64	$335	$1220
Luca Castagnolathin	polymarket	1.83	$665	$1220

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Niklas Schell

Spread

18.0pp

polymarket at 45.5% vs kalshi at 27.5%

Expected Value

+65.45%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (3.64) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

24.8%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $32
24h Volume: $32
Liquidity: $682
Open Interest: $32

Resolves: in 7d 3h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 3h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 3h · May 28, 2026, 9:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 3h · Jun 4, 2026, 9:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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