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Live· updated 29s ago

ITF Mataro: Luis Garcia Paez vs Robert Watzka

Other · May 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Luis Garcia Paez

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.43	70.0%	$0.70	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.42	70.5%	$0.71	+0.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.70

Odds

1.43

Implied

70.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.71

Odds

1.42

Implied

70.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Luis Garcia Paez

Best: 70.5% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

70.0%

70.5%

Robert Watzka

Best: 30.0% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

30.0%

29.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Luis Garcia Paez

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.700

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.807 avg

+9.15% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.739

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.874

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.835 avg

+13.01% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$25.0K @ 0.739

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Luis Garcia Paez (polymarket, $704) — slippage 4.1% — eats into edge

Robert Watzka (kalshi, $297) — slippage 74.0% > 10% cap

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Luis Garcia Paezthin	polymarket	1.43	$704	$1005
Robert Watzkathin	kalshi	3.39	$297	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Luis Garcia Paez

Spread

0.5pp

kalshi at 70.5% vs polymarket at 70.0%

Expected Value

+0.71%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.43) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.7%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $1.2K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 2h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 2h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 2h · May 28, 2026, 3:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 2h · Jun 4, 2026, 3:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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