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ITF Takasaki: Hikaru Sato vs Ayano Shimizu

Other · May 20, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Hikaru Sato

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.44	41.0%	$0.41	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.38	42.0%	$0.42	+1.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.41

Odds

2.44

Implied

41.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.42

Odds

2.38

Implied

42.0%

Edge

+1.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Hikaru Sato

Best: 42.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

41.0%

42.0%

Ayano Shimizu

Best: 58.0% on polymarket

▲+2.0%

Prediction market is 2.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

56.0%

58.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Hikaru Sato

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.410

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.642 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.642

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.865 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.865

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+3.09%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Hikaru Sato (kalshi, $423) — slippage 15.3% > 10% cap

Ayano Shimizu (kalshi, $577) — slippage 9.1% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Hikaru Satothin	kalshi	2.44	$423	$1031
Ayano Shimizuthin	kalshi	1.79	$577	$1031

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Hikaru Sato

Spread

1.0pp

polymarket at 42.0% vs kalshi at 41.0%

Expected Value

+2.44%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.44) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.7%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $3.3K
24h Volume: $3.2K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $2.7K

Resolves: in 13d 19h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $38
24h Volume: $38
Liquidity: $670
Open Interest: $38

Resolves: in 6d 19h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 19h · May 28, 2026, 2:00 AM
kalshiin 13d 19h · Jun 4, 2026, 2:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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