TennisLIVE

Live· updated 31s ago

ITF Toyama: Natsuho Arakawa vs Yui Chikaraishi

Other · May 20, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Natsuho Arakawa

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.42	70.5%	$0.71	---	Bet Here
PolymarketBest	1.42	70.5%	$0.71	---	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.71

Odds

1.42

Implied

70.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.71

Odds

1.42

Implied

70.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Natsuho Arakawa

Best: 70.5% on polymarket

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

70.5%

Yui Chikaraishi

Best: 29.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

29.0%

29.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Natsuho Arakawa

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.705

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.743 avg

+1.44% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.733

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.754

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.805 avg

+9.82% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$25.0K @ 0.733

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Natsuho Arakawa (kalshi, $709) — slippage 4.8% — eats into edge

Yui Chikaraishi (kalshi, $292) — slippage 39.0% > 10% cap

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Natsuho Arakawathin	kalshi	1.42	$709	$1005
Yui Chikaraishithin	kalshi	3.45	$292	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Natsuho Arakawa

Spread

0.0pp

polymarket at 70.5% vs kalshi at 70.5%

Expected Value

0.00%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.42) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

0.0%

EV is negative or marginal — Kelly says skip.

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $269
24h Volume: $269
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $164

Resolves: in 13d 20h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $30
24h Volume: $30
Liquidity: $587
Open Interest: $30

Resolves: in 6d 22h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 22h · May 28, 2026, 4:15 AM
kalshiin 13d 20h · Jun 4, 2026, 3:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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