TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 18s ago

Wuxi: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ognjen Milic

Other · May 5, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000

Platform Prices — Luca Castelnuovo

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.70	37.0%	$0.37	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.60	38.5%	$0.39	+1.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.37

Odds

2.70

Implied

37.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.39

Odds

2.60

Implied

38.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Luca Castelnuovo

Best: 38.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

38.5%

37.0%

Ognjen Milic

Best: 63.0% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

61.5%

63.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Luca Castelnuovo

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.370

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.488 avg

+1.64% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.480

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.496

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.616 avg

+28.40% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$25.0K @ 0.480

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Ognjen Milic (polymarket, $624) — slippage 4.0% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Luca Castelnuovothin	kalshi	2.70	$376	$1015
Ognjen Milicthin	polymarket	1.63	$624	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Luca Castelnuovo

Spread

1.5pp

polymarket at 38.5% vs kalshi at 37.0%

Expected Value

+4.05%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.70) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.4%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $34
24h Volume: $34
Liquidity: $10.8K
Open Interest: $34

Resolves: in 7d 11h

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $23
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $23

Resolves: in 14d 10h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 11h · May 12, 2026, 8:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 10h · May 19, 2026, 7:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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