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Live· updated 8s ago

Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Martin Damm

Other · May 4, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Pablo Carreno Busta

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.53	65.5%	$0.66	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.49	67.0%	$0.67	+1.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.66

Odds

1.53

Implied

65.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.67

Odds

1.49

Implied

67.0%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Pablo Carreno Busta

Best: 67.0% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

65.5%

67.0%

Martin Damm Jr

Best: 34.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

34.5%

33.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Pablo Carreno Busta

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.655

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.678 avg

+1.26% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.670

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.687

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.733 avg

+8.36% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.676

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Pablo Carreno Busta (polymarket, $665) — slippage 2.1% — eats into edge

Martin Damm Jr (kalshi, $335) — slippage 2.3% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Pablo Carreno Busta	polymarket	1.53	$665	$1015
Martin Damm Jrthin	kalshi	3.03	$335	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Pablo Carreno Busta

Spread

1.5pp

kalshi at 67.0% vs polymarket at 65.5%

Expected Value

+2.29%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.53) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

4.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $4.2K
24h Volume: $4.2K
Liquidity: $18.6K
Open Interest: $3.3K

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $46.2K
24h Volume: $46.2K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $44.3K

Resolves: in 14d 0h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · May 11, 2026, 9:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 0h · May 18, 2026, 8:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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