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Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Wawrinka

Other · May 4, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Stefano Travaglia

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.89	53.0%	$0.53	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.85	54.0%	$0.54	+1.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.53

Odds

1.89

Implied

53.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.54

Odds

1.85

Implied

54.0%

Edge

+1.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Stefano Travaglia

Best: 54.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

54.0%

53.0%

Stan Wawrinka

Best: 47.0% on kalshi

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

46.0%

47.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Stefano Travaglia

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.530

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.575 avg

+4.63% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.549

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.600

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.602 avg

+0.23% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$25.0K @ 0.600

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.01%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Stan Wawrinka (polymarket, $465) — slippage 8.7% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Stefano Travagliathin	kalshi	1.89	$535	$1010
Stan Wawrinkathin	polymarket	2.17	$465	$1010

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Stefano Travaglia

Spread

1.0pp

polymarket at 54.0% vs kalshi at 53.0%

Expected Value

+1.89%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.89) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.1%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $676
24h Volume: $676
Liquidity: $11.3K
Open Interest: $475

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $36.0K
24h Volume: $36.0K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $35.0K

Resolves: in 14d 0h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · May 11, 2026, 9:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 0h · May 18, 2026, 8:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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