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ITF Luan: Yuta Tomida vs Kosuke Ogura

Other · May 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Yuta Tomida

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.89	53.0%	$0.53	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.80	55.5%	$0.55	+2.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.53

Odds

1.89

Implied

53.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.55

Odds

1.80

Implied

55.5%

Edge

+2.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Yuta Tomida

Best: 55.5% on kalshi

▲+2.5%

Prediction market is 2.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

55.5%

53.0%

Kosuke Ogura

Best: 47.0% on polymarket

▲+4.0%

Prediction market is 4.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

43.0%

47.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Yuta Tomida

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.530

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.610 avg

+5.35% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.579

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.640

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.644 avg

+11.35% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$25.0K @ 0.579

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+4.17%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Yuta Tomida (polymarket, $552) — slippage 7.1% — eats into edge

Kosuke Ogura (kalshi, $448) — slippage 18.4% > 10% cap

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Yuta Tomidathin	polymarket	1.89	$552	$1042
Kosuke Ogurathin	kalshi	2.33	$448	$1042

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Yuta Tomida

Spread

2.5pp

kalshi at 55.5% vs polymarket at 53.0%

Expected Value

+4.72%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.89) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

5.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $788
24h Volume: $788
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $788

Resolves: in 14d 7h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $2
24h Volume: $2
Liquidity: $1.4K
Open Interest: $2

Resolves: in 7d 7h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 7h · May 29, 2026, 2:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 7h · Jun 5, 2026, 2:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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