Basketball markets on Polymarket, benchmarked against the last tick before resolution. Calibration buckets show whether the closing price was directionally accurate — for example, did the markets the line called "80% YES" actually resolve YES ~80% of the time?
| Closing price bucket | Markets | Resolved YES | Drift vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 0 | — | — |
| 10–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–30% | 0 | — | — |
| 30–40% | 1 | 0.0% | −35.0pp |
| 40–50% | 2 | 50.0% | +5.0pp |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.0% | −5.0pp |
| 60–70% | 1 | 100.0% | +35.0pp |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | — |
| 90–100% | 1 | 100.0% | +5.0pp |
| Resolved | Market | Outcome | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | NBA Playoffs: Team to advance to NBA Finals | Yes | 43.5% | YES |
| May 31 | NBA Playoffs: Team to advance to NBA Finals | Yes | 58.0% | NO |
| May 29 | Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 41.0% | NO |
| May 29 | Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 59.5% | YES |
| May 4 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic | Pistons | 99.9% | YES |
| May 4 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Raptors | 39.0% | NO |
| May 4 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavs | 60.7% | YES |