Market Integrity Report · Fri, 01 May 2026 18:42:54 GMT
Where prediction markets break — and what fixed
A daily transparency report on Polymarket and Kalshi: which markets are currently disputed at the oracle, how long settlements actually take per venue and per series, and the systematic biases that traders should price in. Updated hourly. Source data is public — we just put it in one place nobody else does.
UMA disputes (0)
Polymarket relies on the UMA optimistic oracle to resolve every market. When a proposed outcome is challenged, the market enters dispute — funds stay locked, traders can't exit, and the resolution may flip. Below are the markets in dispute or that were disputed in the last 14 days.
No disputed markets in the last 14 days. Either the oracle is humming or our scan window missed something — refresh in an hour.
Settlement timing
The wall-clock time between a market opening and its final resolution. Capital stays locked the entire window, so the difference between a 4-hour and a 48-hour settle is real cost for any size player. Sample: last 14 days, n=697.
Polymarket
120 d
avg · median 46 d · n=397
UMA-mediated. Disputes can stretch settlement to multiple days with capital frozen.
Kalshi
1.0 h
avg · median 47 min · n=300
CFTC-regulated, internal resolution committee. Faster settles but no dispute mechanism (resolutions are final).
Slowest series to settle
Aggregated by series prefix (e.g. KXNBAGAME on Kalshi, event-type prefix on Polymarket). Helpful for sizing exposure: a series with a 7-day average lock-up isn't the same trade as one that settles same-day, even at identical odds.
| Series | Venue | Avg settle time | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| next-country-us-strikes | polymarket | 338 d | 10 |
| will-bitcoin-hit | polymarket | 329 d | 4 |
| who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet | polymarket | 300 d | 3 |
| nba | polymarket | 251 d | 4 |
| crint-npl-are | polymarket | 11.3 d | 3 |
| crint-mys-idn | polymarket | 11.2 d | 4 |
| crint-bgd-lka | polymarket | 10.6 d | 4 |
| cricipl-guj-roy | polymarket | 10.5 d | 4 |
| crint-ita-npl | polymarket | 7.6 d | 3 |
| crint-deu-aut | polymarket | 7.5 d | 4 |
Methodology
- Disputes pulled from
gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?closed=truefiltered byumaResolutionStatuses. A market is flagged if any historical UMA cycle hitdisputedor the current status ispending/challenged. - Settlement timing =
endDate−startDate(PM) orclose_time−open_time(Kalshi). Sample window: last 14 days. Outliers above 1 year filtered. - Series grouping uses ticker prefixes — Kalshi's
KXNBAGAME-26APR30LALBOS-LALgroups underKXNBAGAME; PM events group by slug stem. - All data is publicly available — we just join it. No paid feed, no proprietary scraping. We refresh hourly.
18+ only. This page is informational. Past dispute / settlement patterns don't guarantee future outcomes — verify the current state on the venue itself before placing capital.