Boxing markets on Polymarket, benchmarked against the last tick before resolution. Calibration buckets show whether the closing price was directionally accurate — for example, did the markets the line called "80% YES" actually resolve YES ~80% of the time?
| Closing price bucket | Markets | Resolved YES | Drift vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 0 | — | — |
| 10–20% | 1 | 0.0% | −15.0pp |
| 20–30% | 0 | — | — |
| 30–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–50% | 0 | — | — |
| 50–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–70% | 0 | — | — |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–90% | 1 | 100.0% | +15.0pp |
| 90–100% | 0 | — | — |
| Resolved | Market | Outcome | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez | Benavidez | 83.0% | YES |
| May 3 | PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez | Zurdo | 17.5% | NO |