Hockey markets on Polymarket, benchmarked against the last tick before resolution. Calibration buckets show whether the closing price was directionally accurate — for example, did the markets the line called "80% YES" actually resolve YES ~80% of the time?
| Closing price bucket | Markets | Resolved YES | Drift vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 0 | — | — |
| 10–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–30% | 0 | — | — |
| 30–40% | 3 | 0.0% | −35.0pp |
| 40–50% | 7 | 57.1% | +12.1pp |
| 50–60% | 3 | 33.3% | −21.7pp |
| 60–70% | 4 | 75.0% | +10.0pp |
| 70–80% | 1 | 100.0% | +25.0pp |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | — |
| 90–100% | 0 | — | — |
| Resolved | Market | Outcome | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Golden Knights | 40.5% | NO |
| Jun 5 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes | 60.0% | YES |
| Jun 3 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Golden Knights | 40.0% | YES |
| Jun 3 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes | 60.5% | NO |
| May 30 | Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Canadiens | 30.0% | NO |
| May 30 | Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes | 70.5% | YES |
| May 28 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Hurricanes | 59.0% | YES |
| May 28 | Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Canadiens | 41.5% | NO |
| May 27 | Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | Avalanche | 51.5% | NO |
| May 27 | Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights | 48.0% | YES |
| May 4 | Wild vs. Avalanche | Wild | 36.0% | NO |
| May 4 | Wild vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 64.5% | YES |
| May 4 | NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning | Habs | 44.0% | YES |
| May 4 | NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning | Lightning | 47.0% | NO |
| May 3 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | Canadiens | 41.0% | YES |
| May 3 | Canadiens vs. Lightning | Lightning | 59.5% | NO |
| May 3 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes | Flyers | 31.5% | NO |
| May 3 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes | 69.0% | YES |