MMA markets on Polymarket, benchmarked against the last tick before resolution. Calibration buckets show whether the closing price was directionally accurate — for example, did the markets the line called "80% YES" actually resolve YES ~80% of the time?
| Closing price bucket | Markets | Resolved YES | Drift vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 0.0% | −5.0pp |
| 10–20% | 0 | — | — |
| 20–30% | 0 | — | — |
| 30–40% | 0 | — | — |
| 40–50% | 0 | — | — |
| 50–60% | 0 | — | — |
| 60–70% | 0 | — | — |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | — |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | — |
| 90–100% | 3 | 100.0% | +5.0pp |
| Resolved | Market | Outcome | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7 | UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card) | Brendan Allen | 99.9% | YES |
| Jun 7 | UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card) | Edmen Shahbazyan | 0.1% | NO |
| Jun 7 | UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) | Tom Nolan | 99.9% | YES |
| Jun 7 | UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | Belal Muhammad | 0.1% | NO |
| Jun 7 | UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | Gabriel Bonfim | 99.9% | YES |