Soccer closing-line value

Soccer markets on Polymarket, benchmarked against the last tick before resolution. Calibration buckets show whether the closing price was directionally accurate — for example, did the markets the line called "80% YES" actually resolve YES ~80% of the time?

Soccer markets tracked

1,780

resolutions with a real closing line

Favorite accuracy

61.0%

when close-price > 50%, % that resolved YES

Calibration buckets — Soccer

Closing price bucket	Markets	Resolved YES	Drift vs midpoint
0–10%	738	4.3%	−0.7pp
10–20%	352	11.6%	−3.4pp
20–30%	237	23.6%	−1.4pp
30–40%	171	33.3%	−1.7pp
40–50%	124	41.1%	−3.9pp
50–60%	66	54.5%	−0.5pp
60–70%	48	54.2%	−10.8pp
70–80%	16	68.8%	−6.3pp
80–90%	16	81.3%	−3.8pp
90–100%	12	91.7%	−3.3pp

Most recent Soccer resolutions

Resolved	Market	Outcome	Closing price	Result
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	96.4%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	3.5%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	0.8%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	83.0%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	15.5%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	3.1%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	70.0%	YES
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	28.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	4.5%	NO
Jun 6	Qatar vs. El Salvador - Halftime Result	Yes	44.0%	YES
Jun 6	Qatar vs. El Salvador - Halftime Result	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Halftime Result	Yes	17.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Halftime Result	Yes	51.0%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Exact Score	Yes	2.0%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Exact Score	Yes	5.5%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	2.5%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	7.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	7.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	35.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	10.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	11.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	5.7%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	7.5%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	4.2%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	8.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	22.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	62.5%	YES
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	15.5%	NO

Closing price bucket

Markets

Resolved YES

Drift vs midpoint

0–10%

738

4.3%

−0.7pp

10–20%

352

11.6%

−3.4pp

20–30%

237

23.6%

−1.4pp

30–40%

171

33.3%

−1.7pp

40–50%

124

41.1%

−3.9pp

50–60%

54.5%

−0.5pp

60–70%

54.2%

−10.8pp

70–80%

68.8%

−6.3pp

80–90%

81.3%

−3.8pp

90–100%

91.7%

−3.3pp

Most recent Soccer resolutions

Resolved	Market	Outcome	Closing price	Result
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	96.4%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	3.5%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda	Yes	0.8%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	83.0%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	15.5%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Halftime Result	Yes	3.1%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	70.0%	YES
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	28.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Halftime Result	Yes	4.5%	NO
Jun 6	Qatar vs. El Salvador - Halftime Result	Yes	44.0%	YES
Jun 6	Qatar vs. El Salvador - Halftime Result	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Halftime Result	Yes	17.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Halftime Result	Yes	51.0%	YES
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Exact Score	Yes	2.0%	NO
Jun 6	Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda - Exact Score	Yes	5.5%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	2.5%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	7.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	7.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	16.0%	NO
Jun 6	England vs. New Zealand - Exact Score	Yes	35.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	10.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	11.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	5.7%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	7.5%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	4.2%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland - Exact Score	Yes	8.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	22.0%	NO
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	62.5%	YES
Jun 6	Bolivia vs. Scotland	Yes	15.5%	NO