SoccerUPCOMING

Live· updated 1m ago

Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910

Bundesliga 2 · August 14, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Holstein Kiel

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.53	39.5%	$0.40	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.47	40.5%	$0.41	+1.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.40

Odds

2.53

Implied

39.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.41

Odds

2.47

Implied

40.5%

Edge

+1.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Holstein Kiel

Best: 40.5% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

40.5%

39.5%

Draw

Best: 26.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

26.5%

26.0%

FC St. Pauli 1910

Best: 34.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

34.0%

33.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Holstein Kiel

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.395

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.437 avg

+0.09% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.437

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.437

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.535 avg

+22.25% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.437

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Draw (kalshi, $264) — slippage 5.4% — eats into edge

FC St. Pauli 1910 (kalshi, $335) — slippage 9.4% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Holstein Kielthin	kalshi	2.53	$401	$1015
Drawthin	kalshi	3.85	$264	$1015
FC St. Pauli 1910thin	kalshi	3.03	$335	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Holstein Kiel

Spread

1.0pp

polymarket at 40.5% vs kalshi at 39.5%

Expected Value

+2.53%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.53) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.7%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $179
24h Volume: $65
Liquidity: $25.8K
Open Interest: $179

Resolves: in 3d 5h

Source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $6
24h Volume: $2
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $5

Resolves: in 5d 11h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 3d 5h · Aug 14, 2026, 4:30 PM
kalshiin 5d 11h · Aug 16, 2026, 10:30 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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