TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 1m ago

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo

Other · June 15, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Alex de Minaur

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.27	78.5%	$0.78	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.24	80.5%	$0.81	+2.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.78

Odds

1.27

Implied

78.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.81

Odds

1.24

Implied

80.5%

Edge

+2.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Alex de Minaur

Best: 80.5% on polymarket

▲+2.0%

Prediction market is 2.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

80.5%

78.5%

Gabriel Diallo

Best: 20.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

19.5%

20.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Alex de Minaur

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.785

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.871 avg

+4.38% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.835

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.908

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.904 avg

+6.24% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.851

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+2.04%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $284

Gabriel Diallo (polymarket, $199) — slippage 82.8% > 10% cap — fillable up to $57

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Alex de Minaurthin	kalshi	1.27	$801	$1020
Gabriel Diallothin	polymarket	5.13	$199	$1020

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Alex de Minaur

Spread

2.0pp

polymarket at 80.5% vs kalshi at 78.5%

Expected Value

+2.55%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.27) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

9.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $60
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 8d 13h

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $87
24h Volume: $87
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $77

Resolves: in 14d 16h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 8d 13h · Jun 22, 2026, 8:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 16h · Jun 28, 2026, 11:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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