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Live· updated 21s ago

ITF Bali: Ren Nakamura vs Keisuke Saitoh

Other · July 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Ren Nakamura

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	18.18	5.5%	$0.06	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	15.38	6.5%	$0.07	+1.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.06

Odds

18.18

Implied

5.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.07

Odds

15.38

Implied

6.5%

Edge

+1.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Ren Nakamura

Best: 6.5% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

5.5%

6.5%

Keisuke Saitoh

Best: 94.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

94.0%

93.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Ren Nakamura

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.055

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.437 avg

+70.17% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.257

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.617

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.734 avg

+25.49% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.585

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.01%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Ren Nakamura (kalshi, $56) — slippage 38.4% > 10% cap — fillable up to $1

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Ren Nakamurathin	kalshi	18.18	$56	$1011
Keisuke Saitohthin	polymarket	1.07	$944	$1011

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Ren Nakamura

Spread

1.0pp

polymarket at 6.5% vs kalshi at 5.5%

Expected Value

+18.18%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (18.18) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.1%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $115
24h Volume: $115
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $115

Resolves: in 14d 10h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $67
24h Volume: $67
Liquidity: $3.1K
Open Interest: $67

Resolves: in 7d 8h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 8h · Jul 29, 2026, 1:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 10h · Aug 5, 2026, 3:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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