TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 23s ago

ITF Bolzano: Michele Mecarelli vs Vladyslav Orlov

Other · July 28, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Michele Mecarelli

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	3.17	31.5%	$0.32	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	3.03	33.0%	$0.33	+1.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.32

Odds

3.17

Implied

31.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.33

Odds

3.03

Implied

33.0%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Michele Mecarelli

Best: 33.0% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

33.0%

31.5%

Vladyslav Orlov

Best: 67.0% on kalshi

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

67.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Michele Mecarelli

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.315

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.449 avg

+25.19% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.359

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.468

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.777 avg

+116.39% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.359

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Michele Mecarelli (kalshi, $320) — slippage 5.8% — eats into edge

Vladyslav Orlov (polymarket, $680) — slippage 2.1% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Michele Mecarellithin	kalshi	3.17	$320	$1015
Vladyslav Orlovthin	polymarket	1.49	$680	$1016

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Michele Mecarelli

Spread

1.5pp

polymarket at 33.0% vs kalshi at 31.5%

Expected Value

+4.76%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (3.17) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.2%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $30
24h Volume: $30
Liquidity: $3.0K
Open Interest: $30

Resolves: in 7d 10h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 10h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 10h · Aug 4, 2026, 11:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 10h · Aug 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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