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Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF Brisbane: Natsuho Arakawa vs Rianna Alame

Other · July 28, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — Natsuho Arakawa

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.65	60.5%	$0.61	---	Bet Here
PolymarketBest	1.64	61.0%	$0.61	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.61

Odds

1.65

Implied

60.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.61

Odds

1.64

Implied

61.0%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Natsuho Arakawa

Best: 61.0% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

60.5%

61.0%

Rianna Alame

Best: 39.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

38.0%

39.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Natsuho Arakawa

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.605

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.645 avg

+0.03% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.645

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.646

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.745 avg

+15.38% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.646

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $532

Natsuho Arakawa (kalshi, $614) — slippage 2.7% — eats into edge

Rianna Alame (kalshi, $386) — slippage 2.1% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Natsuho Arakawathin	kalshi	1.65	$614	$1015
Rianna Alamethin	kalshi	2.63	$386	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Natsuho Arakawa

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 61.0% vs kalshi at 60.5%

Expected Value

+0.83%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.65) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $131
24h Volume: $131
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $131

Resolves: in 14d 6h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $25
24h Volume: $25
Liquidity: $3.2K
Open Interest: $15

Resolves: in 7d 6h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 6h · Aug 5, 2026, 12:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 6h · Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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