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Stale· updated 3m ago

ITF Champaign: William Jansen vs Naoya Honda

Other · July 25, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — William Jansen

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.89	53.0%	$0.53	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.87	53.5%	$0.54	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.53

Odds

1.89

Implied

53.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.54

Odds

1.87

Implied

53.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

William Jansen

Best: 53.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

53.5%

53.0%

Naoya Honda

Best: 46.5% on kalshi

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

46.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

William Jansen

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.530

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.588 avg

+3.83% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.567

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.610

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.643 avg

+5.41% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.610

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Naoya Honda (polymarket, $467) — slippage 6.2% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
William Jansenthin	kalshi	1.89	$533	$1005
Naoya Hondathin	polymarket	2.15	$467	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — William Jansen

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 53.5% vs kalshi at 53.0%

Expected Value

+0.94%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.89) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.1%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $11.3K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 3h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $10
24h Volume: $10
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $10

Resolves: in 14d 3h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 3h · Aug 1, 2026, 4:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 3h · Aug 8, 2026, 4:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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