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Stale· updated 4m ago

ITF Huamantla: Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero vs Mwendwa Mbithi

Other · July 24, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	5.41	18.5%	$0.19	---	Bet Here
KalshiBest	5.26	19.0%	$0.19	+0.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.19

Odds

5.41

Implied

18.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.19

Odds

5.26

Implied

19.0%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero

Best: 19.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

18.5%

19.0%

Mwendwa Mbithi

Best: 81.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

81.5%

81.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.185

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.344 avg

+44.56% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.238

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.366

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.650 avg

+173.07% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.238

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero (polymarket, $186) — slippage 25.4% > 10% cap — fillable up to $1

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Emiliano Aguilera Guerrerothin	polymarket	5.41	$186	$1005
Mwendwa Mbithithin	kalshi	1.24	$814	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Emiliano Aguilera Guerrero

Spread

0.5pp

kalshi at 19.0% vs polymarket at 18.5%

Expected Value

+2.70%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (5.41) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

0.6%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $23
24h Volume: $23
Liquidity: $3.7K
Open Interest: $23

Resolves: in 7d 3h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $207
24h Volume: $207
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $207

Resolves: in 14d 3h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 3h · Jul 31, 2026, 4:30 PM
kalshiin 14d 3h · Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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