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Stale· updated 3m ago

ITF Huamantla: Joaquin Guilleme vs Marco Alvarez

Other · July 23, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Joaquin Guilleme

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	2.06	48.5%	$0.49	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.20	83.5%	$0.84	+35.0pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.49

Odds

2.06

Implied

48.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.84

Odds

1.20

Implied

83.5%

Edge

+35.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Joaquin Guilleme

Best: 83.5% on kalshi

▲+35.0%

Prediction market is 35.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

48.5%

83.5%

Marco Alvarez

Best: 51.5% on polymarket

▲+36.0%

Prediction market is 36.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

51.5%

15.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Joaquin Guilleme

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.485

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.925 avg

+0.60% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.920

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.953

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.929 avg

+0.10% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.928

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+56.25%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Joaquin Guilleme (polymarket, $758) — slippage 2.4% — eats into edge

Marco Alvarez (kalshi, $242) — slippage 65.2% > 10% cap — fillable up to $13

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Joaquin Guillemethin	polymarket	2.06	$758	$1563
Marco Alvarezthin	kalshi	6.45	$242	$1563

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Joaquin Guilleme

Spread

35.0pp

kalshi at 83.5% vs polymarket at 48.5%

Expected Value

+72.16%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (2.06) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

25.0%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $486
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 6h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 4h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 6h · Jul 30, 2026, 7:45 PM
kalshiin 14d 4h · Aug 6, 2026, 6:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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