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Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF Huamantla: Rafael De Alba vs Gray Voelzke

Other · July 28, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Rafael De Alba

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.72	58.0%	$0.58	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.50	66.5%	$0.67	+8.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.58

Odds

1.72

Implied

58.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.67

Odds

1.50

Implied

66.5%

Edge

+8.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Rafael De Alba

Best: 66.5% on polymarket

▲+8.5%

Prediction market is 8.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

66.5%

58.0%

Gray Voelzke

Best: 33.5% on polymarket

▲+4.5%

Prediction market is 4.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

33.5%

29.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Rafael De Alba

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.580

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.875 avg

+1.75% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.860

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.950

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.932 avg

+0.08% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.932

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+14.94%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Rafael De Alba (kalshi, $667) — slippage 3.8% — eats into edge

Gray Voelzke (kalshi, $333) — slippage 95.1% > 10% cap — fillable up to $2

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Rafael De Albathin	kalshi	1.72	$667	$1149
Gray Voelzkethin	kalshi	3.45	$333	$1149

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Rafael De Alba

Spread

8.5pp

polymarket at 66.5% vs kalshi at 58.0%

Expected Value

+14.66%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.72) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

20.2%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $491
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 2h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 2h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 2h · Aug 4, 2026, 3:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 2h · Aug 11, 2026, 3:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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