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Live· updated 27s ago

ITF Irvine: Spencer Johnson vs Strong Kirchheimer

Other · June 20, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Spencer Johnson

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.43	70.0%	$0.70	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.35	74.0%	$0.74	+4.0pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.70

Odds

1.43

Implied

70.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.74

Odds

1.35

Implied

74.0%

Edge

+4.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Spencer Johnson

Best: 74.0% on kalshi

▲+4.0%

Prediction market is 4.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

70.0%

74.0%

Strong Kirchheimer

Best: 30.0% on polymarket

▲+2.0%

Prediction market is 2.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

30.0%

28.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Spencer Johnson

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.700

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.775 avg

+5.82% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.732

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.783

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.797 avg

+8.85% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.732

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+2.04%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $587

Strong Kirchheimer (kalshi, $286) — slippage 23.7% > 10% cap — fillable up to $168

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Spencer Johnsonthin	polymarket	1.43	$714	$1021
Strong Kirchheimerthin	kalshi	3.57	$286	$1020

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Spencer Johnson

Spread

4.0pp

kalshi at 74.0% vs polymarket at 70.0%

Expected Value

+5.71%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.43) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

13.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $3
24h Volume: $3
Liquidity: $3.7K
Open Interest: $3

Resolves: in 7d 4h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $7
24h Volume: $7
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $7

Resolves: in 14d 4h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 4h · Jun 27, 2026, 6:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 4h · Jul 4, 2026, 6:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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