TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 1m ago

ITF Kassel: Dominik Recek vs Luca Castagnola

Other · July 8, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Dominik Recek

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.83	54.5%	$0.55	---	Bet Here
KalshiBest	1.82	55.0%	$0.55	+0.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.55

Odds

1.83

Implied

54.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.55

Odds

1.82

Implied

55.0%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Dominik Recek

Best: 55.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

54.5%

55.0%

Luca Castagnola

Best: 45.5% on polymarket

▲+2.5%

Prediction market is 2.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

45.5%

43.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Dominik Recek

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.545

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.679 avg

+19.11% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.570

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.700

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.820 avg

+43.85% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.570

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+2.56%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Luca Castagnola (kalshi, $441) — slippage 7.5% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Dominik Recekthin	polymarket	1.83	$559	$1026
Luca Castagnolathin	kalshi	2.33	$441	$1026

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Dominik Recek

Spread

0.5pp

kalshi at 55.0% vs polymarket at 54.5%

Expected Value

+0.92%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.83) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.1%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $6.6K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 8h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $442
24h Volume: $442
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $442

Resolves: in 14d 8h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 8h · Jul 15, 2026, 10:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 8h · Jul 22, 2026, 10:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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