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ITF Luque: Mariangel Estrella vs Sofia Meabe

Other · June 16, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — Mariangel Estrella

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	2.78	36.0%	$0.36	---	Bet Here
KalshiBest	2.78	36.0%	$0.36	---	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.36

Odds

2.78

Implied

36.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.36

Odds

2.78

Implied

36.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Mariangel Estrella

Best: 36.0% on kalshi

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

36.0%

Sofia Meabe

Best: 64.0% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

64.0%

63.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Mariangel Estrella

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.360

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.525 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.525

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.820 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.820

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Mariangel Estrella (polymarket, $362) — not enough depth at $362 — fillable up to $3

Sofia Meabe (kalshi, $638) — slippage 2.8% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Mariangel Estrellathin	polymarket	2.78	$362	$1005
Sofia Meabethin	kalshi	1.57	$638	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Mariangel Estrella

Spread

0.0pp

kalshi at 36.0% vs polymarket at 36.0%

Expected Value

-0.00%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (2.78) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

0.0%

EV is negative or marginal — Kelly says skip.

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $9
24h Volume: $9
Liquidity: $2.3K
Open Interest: $9

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 0h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · Jun 23, 2026, 3:15 PM
kalshiin 14d 0h · Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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