TennisUPCOMING

Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF M15 Astana Men: Iliyas Maratuly vs Pawit Sornlaksup

Other · July 28, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — Iliyas Maratuly

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	9.52	10.5%	$0.11	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.99	33.5%	$0.34	+23.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.11

Odds

9.52

Implied

10.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.34

Odds

2.99

Implied

33.5%

Edge

+23.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Iliyas Maratuly

Best: 33.5% on polymarket

▲+23.0%

Prediction market is 23.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

33.5%

10.5%

Pawit Sornlaksup

Best: 83.0% on kalshi

▲+16.5%

Prediction market is 16.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

66.5%

83.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Iliyas Maratuly

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.105

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.685 avg

+8.15% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.634

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.944

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.821 avg

+0.60% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.816

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+29.87%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Iliyas Maratuly (kalshi, $136) — slippage 283.4% > 10% cap — fillable up to $1

Pawit Sornlaksup (polymarket, $864) — slippage 5.3% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Iliyas Maratulythin	kalshi	9.52	$136	$1299
Pawit Sornlaksupthin	polymarket	1.50	$864	$1299

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Iliyas Maratuly

Spread

23.0pp

polymarket at 33.5% vs kalshi at 10.5%

Expected Value

+219.05%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (9.52) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

25.0%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $426
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 7h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $66
24h Volume: $66
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $66

Resolves: in 14d 9h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 7h · Aug 4, 2026, 7:00 AM
kalshiin 14d 9h · Aug 11, 2026, 9:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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