TennisUPCOMING

Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF M15 Xativa Men: Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero vs Daniele Minighini

Other · July 28, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.44	41.0%	$0.41	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.33	43.0%	$0.43	+2.0pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.41

Odds

2.44

Implied

41.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.43

Odds

2.33

Implied

43.0%

Edge

+2.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero

Best: 43.0% on polymarket

▲+2.0%

Prediction market is 2.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

43.0%

41.0%

Daniele Minighini

Best: 57.0% on polymarket

▲+7.0%

Prediction market is 7.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

57.0%

50.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.410

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.719 avg

+3.07% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.698

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.826

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.848 avg

+2.66% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.826

Arbitrage Opportunity

+9.89%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero (kalshi, $451) — slippage 10.4% > 10% cap — fillable up to $30

Daniele Minighini (kalshi, $550) — slippage 10.8% > 10% cap — fillable up to $4

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamerothin	kalshi	2.44	$451	$1099
Daniele Minighinithin	kalshi	2.00	$550	$1099

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero

Spread

2.0pp

polymarket at 43.0% vs kalshi at 41.0%

Expected Value

+4.88%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.44) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

3.4%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $1.1K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 8h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $2
24h Volume: $2
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $2

Resolves: in 14d 8h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 8h · Aug 4, 2026, 7:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 8h · Aug 11, 2026, 7:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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