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Stale· updated 3m ago

ITF Nogent-Sur-Marne: Kim Chiarello vs Lisa Claeys

Other · July 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Kim Chiarello

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	3.70	27.0%	$0.27	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	3.57	28.0%	$0.28	+1.0pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.27

Odds

3.70

Implied

27.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.28

Odds

3.57

Implied

28.0%

Edge

+1.0pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Kim Chiarello

Best: 28.0% on kalshi

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

27.0%

28.0%

Lisa Claeys

Best: 73.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

73.0%

72.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Kim Chiarello

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.270

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.372 avg

+22.94% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.303

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.386

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.593 avg

+95.99% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.303

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.01%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Kim Chiarello (polymarket, $273) — slippage 8.1% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Kim Chiarellothin	polymarket	3.70	$273	$1010
Lisa Claeysthin	kalshi	1.39	$727	$1010

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Kim Chiarello

Spread

1.0pp

kalshi at 28.0% vs polymarket at 27.0%

Expected Value

+3.70%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (3.70) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.4%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $275
24h Volume: $275
Liquidity: $5.3K
Open Interest: $270

Resolves: in 6d 23h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $5
24h Volume: $5
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $5

Resolves: in 13d 23h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 23h · Jul 28, 2026, 3:30 PM
kalshiin 13d 23h · Aug 4, 2026, 3:30 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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