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ITF Rognac: Lucas Marionneau vs Valentin Gonzalez-Galino

Other · July 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Lucas Marionneau

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.17	85.5%	$0.86	---	Bet Here
KalshiBest	1.16	86.0%	$0.86	+0.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.86

Odds

1.17

Implied

85.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.86

Odds

1.16

Implied

86.0%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Lucas Marionneau

Best: 86.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

85.5%

86.0%

Valentin Gonzalez-Galino

Best: 14.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

14.5%

14.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Lucas Marionneau

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.855

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.882 avg

+0.91% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.874

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.890

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.882 avg

+0.20% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.880

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%fillable risk-free returnEXECUTABLE

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Lucas Marionneauthin	polymarket	1.17	$859	$1005
Valentin Gonzalez-Galinothin	kalshi	7.14	$141	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Lucas Marionneau

Spread

0.5pp

kalshi at 86.0% vs polymarket at 85.5%

Expected Value

+0.58%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.17) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

3.4%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $284
24h Volume: $284
Liquidity: $4.6K
Open Interest: $284

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $53
24h Volume: $53
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $53

Resolves: in 14d 1h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · Jul 28, 2026, 2:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 1h · Aug 4, 2026, 2:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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