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ITF Rognac: Mae Malige vs Maxence Rivet

Other · July 21, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Mae Malige

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.45	69.0%	$0.69	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.44	69.5%	$0.70	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.69

Odds

1.45

Implied

69.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.70

Odds

1.44

Implied

69.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Mae Malige

Best: 69.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

69.5%

69.0%

Maxence Rivet

Best: 30.5% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

30.5%

29.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Mae Malige

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.690

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.717 avg

+0.80% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.711

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.723

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.726 avg

+0.49% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.723

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Maxence Rivet (kalshi, $300) — slippage 9.4% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Mae Maligethin	kalshi	1.45	$701	$1015
Maxence Rivetthin	kalshi	3.39	$300	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Mae Malige

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 69.5% vs kalshi at 69.0%

Expected Value

+0.72%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.45) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.6%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $189
24h Volume: $189
Liquidity: $11.3K
Open Interest: $156

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $4
24h Volume: $4
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $4

Resolves: in 14d 1h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · Jul 28, 2026, 4:30 PM
kalshiin 14d 1h · Aug 4, 2026, 4:30 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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