TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 23s ago

ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov

Other · June 17, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00

Platform Prices — Luca Castagnola

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.08	93.0%	$0.93	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.06	94.5%	$0.95	+1.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.93

Odds

1.08

Implied

93.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.95

Odds

1.06

Implied

94.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Luca Castagnola

Best: 94.5% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

93.0%

94.5%

Nazar Oliynykov

Best: 7.0% on polymarket

▲+1.0%

Prediction market is 1.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

7.0%

6.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Luca Castagnola

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.930

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.968 avg

+0.71% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.961

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.975

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.976 avg

+1.56% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.961

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.01%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $487

Nazar Oliynykov (kalshi, $61) — slippage 368.5% > 10% cap — fillable up to $30

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Luca Castagnolathin	polymarket	1.07	$939	$1010
Nazar Oliynykovthin	kalshi	16.67	$61	$1010

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Luca Castagnola

Spread

1.5pp

kalshi at 94.5% vs polymarket at 93.0%

Expected Value

+1.61%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.08) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

21.4%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $255
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 1h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $58
24h Volume: $58
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $58

Resolves: in 14d 1h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 1h · Jun 24, 2026, 8:15 AM
kalshiin 14d 1h · Jul 1, 2026, 8:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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