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Stale· updated 3m ago

ITF Santa Fe: Hina Inoue vs Dana Guzman

Other · July 25, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.000000

Platform Prices — Hina Inoue

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.50	40.0%	$0.40	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.47	40.5%	$0.41	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.40

Odds

2.50

Implied

40.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.41

Odds

2.47

Implied

40.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Hina Inoue

Best: 40.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

40.5%

40.0%

Dana Guzman

Best: 61.5% on kalshi

▲+2.0%

Prediction market is 2.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

59.5%

61.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Hina Inoue

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.400

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.528 avg

+21.80% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.433

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.622

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.667 avg

+7.12% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.622

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Hina Inoue (kalshi, $402) — slippage 3.8% — eats into edge

Dana Guzman (polymarket, $598) — slippage 4.8% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Hina Inouethin	kalshi	2.50	$402	$1005
Dana Guzmanthin	polymarket	1.68	$598	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Hina Inoue

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 40.5% vs kalshi at 40.0%

Expected Value

+1.25%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.50) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

0.8%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $5
24h Volume: $5
Liquidity: $7.4K
Open Interest: $5

Resolves: in 7d 6h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $297
24h Volume: $297
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $297

Resolves: in 14d 6h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 6h · Aug 1, 2026, 7:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 6h · Aug 8, 2026, 7:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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