TennisUPCOMING

Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF Sao Paulo: Matias Soto vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

Other · July 24, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

Platform Prices — Matias Soto

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.56	39.0%	$0.39	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.47	40.5%	$0.41	+1.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.39

Odds

2.56

Implied

39.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.41

Odds

2.47

Implied

40.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Matias Soto

Best: 40.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

40.5%

39.0%

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

Best: 59.5% on polymarket

▲+11.0%

Prediction market is 11.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

59.5%

48.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Matias Soto

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.390

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.711 avg

+27.09% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.559

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.741

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.835 avg

+49.32% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.559

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+14.29%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $572

Matias Soto (kalshi, $446) — slippage 7.6% — eats into edge

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (kalshi, $554) — slippage 11.1% > 10% cap — fillable up to $317

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Matias Sotothin	kalshi	2.56	$446	$1143
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alvesthin	kalshi	2.06	$554	$1143

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Matias Soto

Spread

1.5pp

polymarket at 40.5% vs kalshi at 39.0%

Expected Value

+3.85%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.56) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.5%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $578
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 7d 5h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $0
24h Volume: $0
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $0

Resolves: in 14d 5h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 5h · Jul 31, 2026, 5:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 5h · Aug 7, 2026, 5:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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