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ITF Tokyo: Moerani Bouzige vs Yuki Mochizuki

Other · July 7, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Moerani Bouzige

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.43	70.0%	$0.70	+0.5pp	Bet Here
KalshiBest	1.44	69.5%	$0.70	---	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.70

Odds

1.43

Implied

70.0%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.70

Odds

1.44

Implied

69.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Moerani Bouzige

Best: 70.0% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

70.0%

69.5%

Yuki Mochizuki

Best: 30.0% on kalshi

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

30.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Moerani Bouzige

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.695

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$6.0K@ 0.823 avg

+0.35% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.820

polymarket$1.0K @ 0.837

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$26.0K@ 0.833 avg

+0.02% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.833

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Moerani Bouzige (kalshi, $699) — slippage 8.7% — eats into edge

Yuki Mochizuki (polymarket, $302) — slippage 42.3% > 10% cap — fillable up to $9

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Moerani Bouzigethin	kalshi	1.44	$699	$1005
Yuki Mochizukithin	polymarket	3.33	$302	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Moerani Bouzige

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 70.0% vs kalshi at 69.5%

Expected Value

+0.72%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.44) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.6%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $197
24h Volume: $185
Liquidity: $2.1K
Open Interest: $149

Resolves: in 6d 6h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $1.2K
24h Volume: $1.1K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $1.1K

Resolves: in 13d 6h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 6h · Jul 14, 2026, 4:30 AM
kalshiin 13d 6h · Jul 21, 2026, 4:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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