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Live· updated 1m ago

ITF Tokyo: Shion Yamada vs Ryota Tanuma

Other · July 7, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Shion Yamada

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	5.88	17.0%	$0.17	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	5.41	18.5%	$0.19	+1.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.17

Odds

5.88

Implied

17.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.19

Odds

5.41

Implied

18.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Shion Yamada

Best: 18.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

17.0%

18.5%

Ryota Tanuma

Best: 85.0% on kalshi

▲+3.5%

Prediction market is 3.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

85.0%

81.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Shion Yamada

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.170

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.394 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.394

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.528 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.528

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $411

Shion Yamada (kalshi, $173) — slippage 38.1% > 10% cap — fillable up to $71

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Shion Yamadathin	kalshi	5.88	$173	$1015
Ryota Tanumathin	polymarket	1.23	$827	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Shion Yamada

Spread

1.5pp

polymarket at 18.5% vs kalshi at 17.0%

Expected Value

+8.82%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (5.88) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.8%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $81
24h Volume: $81
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $81

Resolves: in 14d 2h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $27
24h Volume: $27
Liquidity: $2.5K
Open Interest: $27

Resolves: in 7d 2h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 2h · Jul 15, 2026, 3:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 2h · Jul 22, 2026, 3:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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