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Live· updated 1m ago

ITF Tokyo: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Ren Nakamura

Other · July 7, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Taiyo Yamanaka

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	1.10	90.5%	$0.91	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	1.06	94.0%	$0.94	+3.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.91

Odds

1.10

Implied

90.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.94

Odds

1.06

Implied

94.0%

Edge

+3.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Taiyo Yamanaka

Best: 94.0% on kalshi

▲+3.5%

Prediction market is 3.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

94.0%

90.5%

Ren Nakamura

Best: 10.0% on kalshi

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

10.0%

9.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Taiyo Yamanaka

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.905

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.940 avg

+0.48% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.936

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.945

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.947 avg

+1.18% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.936

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.00%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Ren Nakamura (polymarket, $95) — not enough depth at $95 — fillable up to $2

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Taiyo Yamanakathin	polymarket	1.10	$905	$1000
Ren Nakamurathin	polymarket	10.53	$95	$1000

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Taiyo Yamanaka

Spread

3.5pp

kalshi at 94.0% vs polymarket at 90.5%

Expected Value

+3.87%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (1.10) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

25.0%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $1.3K
24h Volume: $1.2K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $1.3K

Resolves: in 14d 2h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $93
24h Volume: $93
Liquidity: $1.3K
Open Interest: $93

Resolves: in 7d 2h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 2h · Jul 15, 2026, 3:30 AM
kalshiin 14d 2h · Jul 22, 2026, 3:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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