MMAUPCOMING

Live· updated 26s ago

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

UFC · July 11, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.0M

Platform Prices — Max Holloway

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.54	65.0%	$0.65	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.50	66.5%	$0.67	+1.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.65

Odds

1.54

Implied

65.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.67

Odds

1.50

Implied

66.5%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Max Holloway

Best: 66.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

66.5%

65.0%

Conor McGregor

Best: 37.0% on kalshi

▲+3.5%

Prediction market is 3.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

33.5%

37.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Max Holloway

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.650

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.660 avg

+1.54% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.650

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.670

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.660 avg

+1.54% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.650

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%fillable risk-free returnEXECUTABLE

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Max Hollowaythin	kalshi	1.54	$660	$1015
Conor McGregor	polymarket	2.98	$340	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Max Holloway

Spread

1.5pp

polymarket at 66.5% vs kalshi at 65.0%

Expected Value

+2.31%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.54) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

4.3%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $794.1K
24h Volume: $23.9K
Liquidity: $337.5K
Open Interest: $659.9K

Resolves: in 7d 3h

Source: https://www.ufc.com/events

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $7.3M
24h Volume: $301.4K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $4.8M

Resolves: in 21d 2h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 3h · Jul 12, 2026, 3:59 AM
kalshiin 21d 2h · Jul 26, 2026, 3:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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