MMAUPCOMING

Live· updated 1m ago

UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)

UFC · August 8, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Manoel Sousa

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	1.43	70.0%	$0.70	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	1.42	70.5%	$0.71	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.70

Odds

1.43

Implied

70.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.71

Odds

1.42

Implied

70.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Manoel Sousa

Best: 70.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

70.5%

70.0%

Richie Miranda

Best: 31.0% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

29.5%

31.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Manoel Sousa

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.700

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.783 avg

+10.81% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.706

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.859

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.752 avg

+2.94% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.730

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Richie Miranda (polymarket, $297) — slippage 180.7% > 10% cap — fillable up to $2

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Manoel Sousathin	kalshi	1.43	$704	$1005
Richie Mirandathin	polymarket	3.39	$297	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Manoel Sousa

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 70.5% vs kalshi at 70.0%

Expected Value

+0.71%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (1.43) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

1.7%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Liquidity: $2.2K
Open Interest: —

Resolves: in 5d 1h

Source: https://www.ufc.com/events

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $14.3K
24h Volume: $9.2K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $12.2K

Resolves: in 18d 18h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 5d 1h · Aug 9, 2026, 3:59 AM
kalshiin 18d 18h · Aug 22, 2026, 9:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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