TennisUPCOMING

Live· updated 1m ago

Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi

Tennis · June 22, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0.00000000000000

Platform Prices — Rio Noguchi

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
KalshiBest	2.86	35.0%	$0.35	---	Bet Here
Polymarket	2.82	35.5%	$0.36	+0.5pp	Bet Here

KalshiBest

$0.35

Odds

2.86

Implied

35.0%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Polymarket

$0.36

Odds

2.82

Implied

35.5%

Edge

+0.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Rio Noguchi

Best: 35.5% on polymarket

▲+0.5%

Prediction market is 0.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

35.5%

35.0%

Luca Nardi

Best: 64.5% on kalshi

▼0.0%

Prices are roughly equal across platforms.

64.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Rio Noguchi

cheapest single venue: kalshi at 0.350

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$5.0K@ 0.499 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.499

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$25.0K@ 0.705 avg

+0.00% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.705

Algo-trader tier — combines order-book depth and per-book stake limits at $25k each.

Whale tier (max known capacity)

Arbitrage Opportunity

+0.50%theoretical onlyPAPER

Fillable up to $377

Rio Noguchi (kalshi, $352) — slippage 2.4% — eats into edge

Luca Nardi (polymarket, $648) — slippage 2.9% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Rio Noguchithin	kalshi	2.86	$352	$1005
Luca Nardithin	polymarket	1.55	$648	$1005

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Rio Noguchi

Spread

0.5pp

polymarket at 35.5% vs kalshi at 35.0%

Expected Value

+1.43%

Per $1 staked at kalshi (2.86) if polymarket's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

0.8%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $462
24h Volume: $462
Liquidity: $7.7K
Open Interest: $462

Resolves: in 7d 18h

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $31
24h Volume: $31
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $31

Resolves: in 14d 15h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 7d 18h · Jun 29, 2026, 1:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 15h · Jul 6, 2026, 10:00 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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