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Stale· updated 3m ago

ITF M15 Huamantla 4 Men: Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias vs Joseph Hernandez

Other · July 27, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	2.90	34.5%	$0.35	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	2.44	41.0%	$0.41	+6.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.35

Odds

2.90

Implied

34.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.41

Odds

2.44

Implied

41.0%

Edge

+6.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias

Best: 41.0% on kalshi

▲+6.5%

Prediction market is 6.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

34.5%

41.0%

Joseph Hernandez

Best: 65.5% on polymarket

▲+7.5%

Prediction market is 7.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

65.5%

58.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.345

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.632 avg

+31.64% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.480

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.784

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.692 avg

+41.31% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.490

Arbitrage Opportunity

+8.11%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias (polymarket, $373) — slippage 24.1% > 10% cap — fillable up to $16

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias	polymarket	2.90	$373	$1081
Joseph Hernandezthin	kalshi	1.72	$627	$1081

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Nicolas Esteban Rico Arias

Spread

6.5pp

kalshi at 41.0% vs polymarket at 34.5%

Expected Value

+18.84%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (2.90) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

9.9%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $8.9K
24h Volume: $8.9K
Liquidity: $11.3K
Open Interest: $7.2K

Resolves: in 6d 21h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $234.8K
24h Volume: $185.1K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $123.3K

Resolves: in 13d 21h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 21h · Aug 3, 2026, 3:30 PM
kalshiin 13d 21h · Aug 10, 2026, 3:30 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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