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The Memphis Classic: Mary Stoiana vs Peyton Stearns

Other · July 26, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Mary Stoiana

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	2.53	39.5%	$0.40	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	2.44	41.0%	$0.41	+1.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.40

Odds

2.53

Implied

39.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.41

Odds

2.44

Implied

41.0%

Edge

+1.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Mary Stoiana

Best: 41.0% on kalshi

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

39.5%

41.0%

Peyton Stearns

Best: 60.5% on polymarket

▲+1.5%

Prediction market is 1.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

60.5%

59.0%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Mary Stoiana

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.395

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.413 avg

+0.82% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.410

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.417

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$30.0K@ 0.436 avg

+4.52% vs cheapest single venue

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.417

kalshi

Arbitrage Opportunity

+1.52%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Mary Stoiana (polymarket, $401) — slippage 2.4% — eats into edge

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Mary Stoiana	polymarket	2.53	$401	$1015
Peyton Stearnsthin	kalshi	1.70	$599	$1015

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Mary Stoiana

Spread

1.5pp

kalshi at 41.0% vs polymarket at 39.5%

Expected Value

+3.80%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (2.53) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

2.5%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $1.5K
24h Volume: $1.5K
Liquidity: $48.6K
Open Interest: $1.4K

Resolves: in 6d 12h

Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $3.3K
24h Volume: $3.3K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $3.2K

Resolves: in 14d 12h

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 12h · Aug 2, 2026, 3:00 PM
kalshiin 14d 12h · Aug 10, 2026, 3:00 PM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

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