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Stale· updated 2m ago

ITF Brisbane: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuki Yoshimoto

Other · July 20, 2026

Best Price

$0.00

Worst Price

$0.00

Max Gap

0.0%

Total Volume

$0K

Platform Prices — Mana Kawamura

Platform	Decimal Odds	Implied %	Price▲	Edge vs Best	Action
PolymarketBest	5.41	18.5%	$0.19	---	Bet Here
Kalshi	4.35	23.0%	$0.23	+4.5pp	Bet Here

PolymarketBest

$0.19

Odds

5.41

Implied

18.5%

Edge

---

Bet Here

Kalshi

$0.23

Odds

4.35

Implied

23.0%

Edge

+4.5pp

Bet Here

All Outcomes

Mana Kawamura

Best: 23.0% on kalshi

▲+4.5%

Prediction market is 4.5% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

23.0%

18.5%

Natsuki Yoshimoto

Best: 81.5% on polymarket

▲+3.0%

Prediction market is 3.0% cheaper than sportsbooks. Consider buying on PM.

78.5%

81.5%

Aggregate liquidity

across every venue · the only place this number exists

For each outcome, the total fillable capacity if you split across every venue (Polymarket order-book depth + Kalshi order-book depth + Pinnacle / Bet365 / DraftKings stake limits). A whale can't deploy $50k on Polymarket alone without moving the price — but the same $50k splits cleanly across 4 venues at a much tighter aggregate fill price. That's what this panel shows.

Mana Kawamura

cheapest single venue: polymarket at 0.185

Retail tier ($5k/venue)

$10.0K@ 0.340 avg

+9.58% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$5.0K @ 0.310

polymarket$5.0K @ 0.369

What you can deploy retail-sized across every venue without moving a single market.

Sharp tier ($25k/venue)

$50.0K@ 0.484 avg

+42.50% vs cheapest single venue

kalshi$25.0K @ 0.340

polymarket

Arbitrage Opportunity

+3.09%theoretical onlyPAPER

Stake split for $1,000 bankroll

Mana Kawamura (polymarket, $191) — slippage 13.4% > 10% cap — fillable up to $1

Outcome	Platform	Odds	Stake	To win
Mana Kawamura	polymarket	5.41	$191	$1031
Natsuki Yoshimotothin	kalshi	1.27	$809	$1031

Stake the listed amount on each outcome at the matching platform. Whichever outcome wins, the payout covers the full bankroll plus the margin shown. Verify prices before placing — odds drift quickly.

Cross-Platform Edge — Mana Kawamura

Spread

4.5pp

kalshi at 23.0% vs polymarket at 18.5%

Expected Value

+24.32%

Per $1 staked at polymarket (5.41) if kalshi's price is fair.

Kelly Stake

5.5%

Recommended bankroll fraction (capped at quarter Kelly).

Platform Activity

kalshi

updated just now

Volume: $721.5K
24h Volume: $678.8K
Liquidity: $0
Open Interest: $372.3K

Resolves: in 13d 20h

polymarket

updated just now

Volume: $8.2K
24h Volume: $8.2K
Liquidity: $109.6K
Open Interest: $5.1K

Resolves: in 6d 20h

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/

Settlement Timeline

polymarketin 6d 20h · Jul 28, 2026, 2:30 AM
kalshiin 13d 20h · Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 AM

Capital on each platform stays locked until that market settles. When platforms resolve at different times the earlier one frees up bankroll for the next opportunity.

Price History

Illustrative preview · historical tracking coming soon

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

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